Poker: Not far from a game of Rock, Paper, Scissors

First I would like to let everyone know that I'm still alive and kicking. I took a short break for the last month and a half. Summer, School, Moving around, hanging out with the fiance. Ultimately poker has taken a backseat. However, I haven't stopped thinking, reading and watching poker. In the last month I've come across a very unique thought: Poker is not much different than Rock, Paper, Scissors.

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Poker is a game of out-thinking your opponents without out-thinking yourself. Staying one step ahead in the thought processes of your opponents is the exact place to be. If you start thinking two or more steps ahead of your opponents, you often will over-think and do exactly what your opponent wants you to do. An example:

You have a pair of Tens. It's raised from early position for a standard raise, you called, and the flop comes down 4 6 9 rainbow. Completely harmless to you, however your opponent leads out again with a big bet. So what level of thinking do you go to? It will more than likely fluctuate between whether he has a larger pocket pair than yours or has something like AK or AQ. If you think he is continuation betting than he probably has AK or AQ, something you have 75% of the way beat by this point. If you think he is betting a bigger pair than you are more 80% to lose the hand.

So you then go into the thought processes and figure out why he would bet this way. Would he bet this way with a large overpair like AA KK QQ or JJ, or would he slowplay it. Does he think that you think he would slowplay a hand like that, and in thinking so bets it so as not to slowplay the hand. Suddenly it becomes a game in which you are thinking about what your opponent is thinking about your thinking. These levels of thought processes have the potential of being infinite in size, but often most people don't go much further than let's say the 3rd or 4th level of thinking.

So lets say that he does have AK, he is continuation betting, and that's all he is thinking. If you think that he thinks that you think he would slowplay AA or KK you may actually fold here. And in going two steps ahead of your opponent you end up acting just how he hoped. In believing that your opponent is aware that you think he would slow play a big pair and in betting trys to do the opposite is going 2 steps ahead of the thought process the opponent is actually in.

Lets change this again, lets say that he has pocket kings. The opponent knows that he is well known for being a slowplayer, checking and calling with monster hands in hopes of trapping. He believes that if he bets here, people will assume he is bluffing, because if he had a big overpair he would probably check. In this case, your thought process works perfectly, you believe that he is changing gears and is no longer slowplaying his big pair, and you fold. You are exactly one step ahead of your opponent in terms of thought levels, and made the correct play.

**For more insight on Poker Thought, see Jonathan Ellis's Article in "Philosophy of Poker", "Thinking about Thinking about Thinking about Thinking (about poker)"**

So how does this relate to Rock, Paper, Scissors? Most would consider Rock, Paper, Scissors to be a game merely of luck, you just happen to pick the one of three choices that beats the one of three choices of your opponent. Is this true however? Not entirely. I've never seen a person play Rock, Paper, Scissors that wasn't trying to predict what the opponent was going to throw next (he has thrown rock three times in a row, he's probably going to throw scissors next).

It becomes a mind game trying to predict what hand his opponent would throw out next, and counter games insue where he the opponent does the opposite of what his opponent is trying to predict.

Again, quite confusing thinking about thinking, but this brings us once again to the original question. What does poker have to do with Rock, Paper, Scissors?

The answer is your table image and current play style. Does everyone think you are playing tight, loose, passive, aggressive? And in reality what kind of poker are you playing? Fortunately in most smaller limit games played among amateurs and rookies alike, their table image matches exactly with their play style. Unfortunately even with this information, the amateur can't take advantage of the other player because he himself doesn't know how to "change gears," or throw a scissors instead of a rock. Here's an example:

Let's say that a professional poker player sat down with a table of amateurs, and he knows how to "change gears." He's been playing tight the entire game, giving up his blinds to preflop raises, but betting his good hands hard. The entire table thinks he is tight, and they all think that every time he plays he has a good hand. This pro knowing that the table has adapted to his tight play can now change gears, suddenly playing as though he is getting a large influx of good cards, he begins stealing the far majority of the pots on the table, and it takes quite a few rounds before the other players at the table even realize what he has been doing.

Some professionals have become famous for their table image, and no matter where they may go, that table image sticks with them. One example would be Gus Hansen, whom most believe to be one of the loosest most aggressive players out there. He can easily sit down at a table and play tight pick up a hand, play in his classic aggressive style, and quite possibly get called by someone with a marginal hand thinking he is merely just bluffing like always.

This is merely the tip of the iceberg for table image however. The best players will actually change gears according to whomever they are playing. Often times this is the best strategy against amateurs because they are unable to change gears and if you can constantly change your strategy and betting patterns according to whomever you are playing you can make them pay for that mistake. Some further examples:

You are up against a calling station in a pot and your hand hits nothing. Where in most cases you would lead out with a bluff guessing no one else hit the flop either, you decide to merely check knowing that you can not bluff this person out of the pot.

You are up against a maniac and hit a great hand. Where you would normally bet into a calling station, you check to him knowing that he may very well bluff all his chips into your stack.

You are up against a pro, he reads very well especially based on betting patterns, and you suspect he considers you to be an amateur, someone whos aggressive when he bluffs and slowplays his big hands. You suddenly hit your huge nut hand, where in most cases you would slowplay, you decide to overbet the pot and act as if you are bluffing, possibly sucking in your first professional victim.

These are the thought processes that often occur at a poker table, and fortunately at many tables devoid of professionals you probably only have 20% of the table thinking this way(if even that high). If you can be part of that 20%, you can have a very profitable time indeed, and if you sit at a high stakes table with a bunch of pros, you have to think this way just to survive.

Poker is a game not unsimilar to Rock, Paper, Scissors. However, poker makes it much harder to switch between Rock, Paper, Scissors, and even more difficult to figure out what your opponents are playing as well.

If they are playing loose and passive (calling station) you should wait for a monster hand and continue to bet aggressively into them and hope they call off all their chips with a mediocre hand.

If they are playing loose and aggressive (maniac) you should wait for a monster hand and slowplay them into bluffing off all their chips.

If they are playing tight and aggressive (Classic ABC poker) you should probably play looser, trying to steal pots, and folding when they show aggression back.

If they are playing tight and passive (Rock) you should play loose and very aggressive, hoping to steal many pots from them, and if they do end up calling, slowing down because you know they probably have a decent hand.

If we were to make comparisons to Rock Paper Scissors, the maniac can be seen as the scissors, Classic ABC Poker the paper, and the Rock is well the Rock. Tight Passive works well against maniacs, Maniacs work well against ABC Poker, and ABC Poker works well against Tight Passive opponents.

*Note the calling station is probably the least desirable of all the playing styles, and usually holds no real advantage over any other playing styles, it's only possible use in a poker game is to make your opponents think you are a horrible player thus creating a favorable table image.*

What needs to be known is that no one single style of play is perfect, but adapting quickly to your opponents play style is as close as you can get to playing perfect poker.