Wednesday, January 16, 2008

A Common Mistake: Sizing Your Bets.

As I've been playing some games lately online, I've come across a very common, well known mistake still happening from the majority of online poker players. They do not know how to properly size their bets.

This doesn't refer to the tricksters out there, whom I will address later. This is about the player who either bets too little or way too much or both. I'll lead out with an example:

You are in early position of a $25NL Texas Hold 'Em game. Blinds are $.10 and $.25 cents. You are dealt AQ and the first player folds. You are rolling with a shorter than normal roll of $7 because of a bad beat a few hands prior. You decide to push all in. You win the pot uncontested and think you made a pretty good move with AQ driving out smaller pairs and just taking the blinds.

So what's wrong with this picture? You bet 28 times the big blind, an absurdly huge number. The pot was only $.35 cents and you bet $7 dollars into it. Now if you were in this game facing a raise like that pre-flop what on earth would you have to have in front of you to make that call? Only hands that have you beat. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK and maybe even TT would call you too. If someone was rolling even shorter than you maybe even smaller pairs. But all of these hands have you beat heads up, and actually 4 of them have you absolutely dominated, referring to AA, KK, QQ and AK.

What should you have done in this position? Well leading out with $.75 cents or even $1 is more advisable, you will still make those with lesser hands fold. And you still leave room for hands that you will dominate left in the hand, like AJ, KQ, and at least in a coin flip with paired hands JJ and below. These are hands that you will extract the most money out of if you hit the flop, and even if you don't hit the flop, you can often drive smaller pairs out of the hand with continuation bets if the flop looks scary enough with high cards.

True this puts you in a situation where you have to make more decisions, it's so easy to be binary in your decision of all-in/fold. It makes it easy because you no longer have to make anymore decisions later on in the hand. If you are going to beat the other players you need to put you and them in situations where they have to make decisions, and as long as you make better ones based on better information, knowledge and wisdom you will not only beat them but you will extract more and more from them as well.

Here is another example at the same table.

Preflop:
Middle Position: Call $.25
Hero: Ac Qd - Bets $.75
Small Blind: Calls $.75
Big Blind: Calls $.75
Middle Position: Calls $.75

Flop: Qc 8d 5s | Pot = $3.00
Small Blind: Check
Big Blind: Check
Middle Position: Check
Hero: Bet $.75
Small Blind: Fold
Big Blind: Fold
Middle Position: Call $.75

Turn: Qc 8d 5s Js | Pot = $4.50
Middle Position: Check
Hero: Bet $.75
Middle Position: Call

River: Qc 8d 5s Js Ts | Pot = $6.00
Middle Position: Check
Hero: Bet $.75
Middle Position: Raise $4.00
Hero: Call $4.00

Middle Position shows As 8s for an Ace High Flush.
Hero mucks cards.
Middle position wins pot of $14.00

You have AQ again, but you are now on the button. You raised it a proper $.75 cents and had 3 callers, 2 from the blinds in a loose game. The pot now stands at $3 dollars. The flop comes Q85 rainbow. It's checked around to you and you bet $.75 cents again. The blinds fold but the middle position calls you. It comes down with a J matching a suit on the board, and you bet $.75 cents again and you are called. Finally the river completes the flush draw and the straight draw with a 10. You are checked to again, you bet $.75 cents again but then get check-raised to $4 dollars. What do you do now? You think you may be beat, but still have top pair and top kicker, and you make a call. He turns over the flush and you throw your cards in the muck in disgust while silently yelling in your brain that you can't believe he chased his back door flush.

What went wrong? You bet way too little in this example, and this example is almost an extreme case, but I see it all the time at the tables. The initial pre-flop bet was great building a nice sized pot. But after you hit top pair and top kicker you have to protect that hand with more than just another 75cent bet. Middle position was looking at getting 5:1 pot odds in that he only had to put 75 cents into the pot to win$3.75. He was almost inclined to chase his flush/pairs/three of a kind with pot odds like that, and he knew he could probably extract even more later if he did happen to hit his hand.

What should have happened? You should have bet anywhere from $1.50 to $3.00 to push out the chasers, or at least make them pay to see the turn and river. A price that shouldn't be paid mathematically speaking. Now you are forcing your opponent to make mistakes, and if you are playing a poor player, he may still chase at that price, and more often than not he will not hit his flush, and end up paying dearly for chasing it.

How about those crafty players out there? Occasionally you can try and fool people by over or under betting your hands. You really only ever see this happen against the better players who understand pot odds and bet sizing. It's often a tell that if you over bet you probably are bluffing, and if you under bet you are probably trapping. If you have a table image of the newbie who doesn't bet properly or give away your hand strength through your betting you could get away with some tricks. You do the opposite of what they expect, you over bet your good hands and under bet your bluffs. By sending this false tell you may get paid off on your pocket aces and get away with bluffs with small bet sizes. Again this is a risky strategy, but a viable one if you are tuned into the table and you are not playing with a bunch of clowns.

If you are playing clowns, play straightforward poker with appropriate bets, and try not to change your betting style in terms of bet sizes in accordance to your hand strength, because you may have that one shark at the table who sees right through your betting and may take full advantage of that tell.

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On a side note, I'm back into playing poker a little more lately. It won't be a super regular thing, but I will try and put in a couple hours a week depending on scheduling. I will also be going to Hawaii for the first time in about a weeks time and I'm very excited.

I hope to still try and write more and more articles, I notice I still get visitors and I'm glad that people still get a lot of use from my articles.

Leave comments as usual if you have anything to add or would like to comment or suggest anything for a future article.

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